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There’s a lot that could be said about R1, G1, builds, attacks, counters, contingencies, percentages - but suffice to say I don’t say Ukr/W Rus is SAFE (in fact, I don’t think it IS, and that’s one of the reasons I push for preplaced bid which the developers won’t do but eh whatever).īut I do think Ukr / W Rus open has better outcomes than a triple open.Īs to “you prefer Germany can put 5 tanks and 9 inf in Karelia”, do you think there’s a perfect answer? What would that be? “so you prefer Germany can put 5 tanks and 9 inf in Karelia” What was it you were just saying about smart players? So it won’t just be a 1-turn attack, right? You’re assuming Germany does a 1-turn attack into West Russia then retreats after exposing German air to AA fire, without Germany even attempting to blow up USSR’s valuable tanks. Instead of assuming Germany stupidly overcommits tanks and loses them to an easy counter that can’t be punished, or assuming Germany needlessly exposes air to AA guns, how about assuming Germany correctly calculates the balance of ground and air that has about a 85%+ probability to capture West Russia and destroy all USSR’s valuable ground units? Not overkill, not underkill, but just about right, and if the attack on West Russia isn’t favorable then of course Germany doesn’t hit that and goes to Caucasus - but again, Germany doesn’t overcommit. You really think Germany would hesitate to destroy both USSR’s AA guns, three tanks, and two artillery, and cut off UK fighters flying from London to West Russia, along with a possible G1 tank build for quick early pressure and possibly even a J1 Manchuria IC to pump tanks on the timing - along with G2 starting with control of Karelia? Nothing can counter super bad dice, but a Ukr/W Rus open is slightly less vulnerable. Now Germany has more to counter with, and there’s nothing USSR can do about it once the triple has been committed to. You’re prepared for that? But suppose you also do badly at Belorussia. Sometimes 4? Perhaps, but also you might see 3, 2, or less.Īnd what happens in case of cascade failure? Suppose you do a bit badly at West Russia. Saying you’ll have 5 infantry at West Russia? Reasonable, but not something to depend on. But take a good hard look at the numbers, and not just the net IPC changes, but the resulting positions, counters, and followups remembering dice variance. Superficially, the numbers seem to check out. and 1 inf 1 art 1 fig vs 1 inf 1 tank at Baltic States, I assume. two of them have >90% chance of victory (3 inf, 1 tank, 1 fighter vs 3 inf) and (8 inf, 3 tanks, 2 artillery vs 3 inf 1 art 1 tank).”
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“ussr will have 2 aa guns, 3 tanks, 2 art, 5 inf normally in west russia (sometimes 6 or 4 inf)”, “attack Baltic states, belorussia, and West Russia”, “ussr Baltic opener.